Create your Aestus identity and keep your research profile ready for the public beta.
Access stateBeta preview
PlanFree preview
Create your account
Create an individual Aestus account to keep your research identity and preferences together. The public beta remains open to everyone.
or use email
Your password is sent only to the Aestus authentication endpoint and is never stored in the browser. Production account traffic will use HTTPS.
Your profile
A compact account dossier for your identity and research preferences. No paid access rules are active in this beta.
AccountNot signed in
PlanFree preview
Name—
Email—
Sign in to load your profile.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE / 01
Market Explorer
Live parent-market catalog · category structure · execution-aware research.
Catalog surfaceLoading…
Active questionNone selected
Execution linkIdle
Manual fallback: event URL or raw JSON
Use this only if catalog loading is unavailable.
Fetching active market groups…
TRADER INTELLIGENCE / 02
Trader Research
Rank public traders · inspect trades · review open positions.
Profiles on canvas0 profiles
Query stateDiscovery mode
Data modePublic profile dossier
Top traders
Search a public username, or load a top-trader ranking.
Search for a username to inspect a trader, or choose a ranking metric and load the top 25 / 50 / 100.
BET SCOPE / 03
Bet Scope
Recent trades · open positions · model edge ranking against current Polymarket quotes.
Active lensRecent trades
Feed rows0 loaded
DataPublic Polymarket activity
Choose a lens or refresh the feed.
Loading public activity…
MARKET WORKBENCH / EXECUTION + MODEL
Market details
Select a market from the browser.
Load stateLoading market details…
Book freshnessWaiting…
StreamDisconnected
Loading market details…
Live stream disconnected.
Markets & price action
Loading options…
Price history
Load a market to chart its price history.
Aestus Football Model
Independent historical valuation · Level 1 open during beta · Level 2 premium research
Level 1 beta preview
FOOTBALL MODEL ACCESSUNLOCK THE MODEL FOR EVERY MATCHDuring the controlled beta, Level 1 historical probabilities are available for every football fixture. Level 2 advanced research remains reserved for premium members.
Structure
Nothing loaded.
Select a market to load its live order book and public transaction tape.
Market-prior calibration is disabled in v1. Use an independent probability source; no generic longshot correction is applied automatically.
Structure notes
Recent media
Automatically filtered event coverage · news + video
Waiting for an event…
Load an event to scan related media.
Assumptions
Advanced costs & buffers (sensible defaults)
Rows without your estimate still show market-consensus diagnostics, but consensus-only rows are never promoted into the portfolio. Missing books may show an estimated reference fill marked *, but estimates are never actionable. Forecast uncertainty and joint-distribution stress are deliberately separate: row edge uses the horizon-aware forecast band, while portfolio sizing moves probability mass across joint states inside the configured TV radius.
Holder research non-actionable
Research-only context. Computes the arithmetic average lifetime ROI of all returned holders on each side, with coverage and sample size visible. It never writes into “Your p”, never creates an actionable edge, and never enters the portfolio.
Signal settings
Load an event first.
⚠ Descriptive only — average ROI is not calibration. Coverage reports how many returned holders had usable performance data; use it to investigate a market, never to justify a trade by itself.
Bet sizing
Tick fresh, fully executable MODEL-EDGE rows. Final sizes are re-quoted against the live ask ladder and optimized jointly.
$
Per-bet and total-cash caps come from Advanced costs & buffers above; there is one source of truth for risk limits.
The allocator maximizes robust expected log wealth over the full modeled state space, re-quotes every proposed principal against displayed asks, applies fees/slippage/lockup, and enforces per-bet, total-cash, and worst-state loss caps. Fractional Kelly scales the optimized portfolio and re-evaluates it at the smaller live-book sizes.
Forecast journal
Independent probability edits and applied Fair Value Engine forecasts are journaled locally in this browser.
Each independent forecast revision stores its timestamp, market/state identity, provenance, fair-value components when available, market benchmark, bid/ask, horizon and a resolution-rules fingerprint. When you later load the same market after resolution, Aestus Value Lab scores resolved entries with Brier score and log loss. Consensus seeds and holder research are never journaled as independent forecasts.
